RISK ANALYSIS OF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN EGYPT (DURING THE ECONOMIC RECESSION PERIODS)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Business Development Manager, PetroJet Company,

2 Assistant Professor,Faculty of Engineering, Civil Engineering Department

3 Faculty of Engineering, Civil Engineering Department, Port Said University

Abstract

The construction industry is a significant part of the Egyptian economy. In real terms, the Egyptian construction industry registered growth during the review period (2011–2015) and expected to continue to expand over the forecast period (2016–2020), with investments in residential, infrastructure, energy and utilities construction projects. Forecast-period growth will drive by government efforts to develop the country's rail and road infrastructure and meet its energy targets by 2022. But currently, Egypt’s economy is suffering from a shortage of foreign currency reserves and liquidity, leading the country’s central bank to float the Egyptian pound’s value, which has subsequently risen from 8.88 to 18 pounds per US dollar (a 100% increase), a recession started. Hence, the performance of the construction industry is affected by national economies. The aim of this study is to develop appropriate risk model to mitigate recession effect on construction industry in Egypt.
Methodology of the following study based on identifying the potential risks in construction projects under recession period, characterizing their probability and impacts, performing the quantitative and qualitative risk analysis (based on questionaries’ survey conducted in the year 2015/2016), and statistical analysis by (SPSS) has been carried out to develop risks’ model and measurement framework using the Primavera Risk Analysis (V8) Software. Focusing in various project’s size and type (small, large, private, and governmental projects). The results show that the corruption associated with recession is the most aspect of risks affecting the Egyptian construction sector during recession periods in addition risks that related to poorly sector participants management abilities

Keywords

Port-Said Engineering Research Journal
Volume 21, Issue 2
September 2017
Pages 37-50

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